On 9th June 2026, a presentation on the "Annual Report on Global and China Civil Aviation Market Forecast," delivered by Zhang Yuehuan from the Marketing Department of COMAC's Marketing Center, was successfully held. The presentation analysed the current state of recovery in the global civil aviation industry and its trends over the next 20 years, with a focus on forecasting the enormous potential of the Asia-Pacific region, especially the Chinese market, and broke down the delivery volumes and value of each aircraft segment.
Current State of the Global Civil Aviation Industry and the Macroeconomic Environment
The global civil aviation industry has entered a phase of full recovery. In 2024, global international revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) surpassed the pre-pandemic 2019 level for the first time, by 0.5%. It is estimated that between 2025 and 2044, total global commercial aircraft deliveries will reach 45,172 units, with a total value of approximately US$6.929 trillion, and the global fleet is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.73%. Over the next 20 years, global economic growth is projected to average 2.77% per year, with the Asia-Pacific region becoming the core growth engine. Routes from China to the Asia-Pacific region achieved year-on-year growth of 55.1%, and seat capacity at major international hub airports worldwide increased by 8.5% compared with 2019.
Core Drivers of the Chinese Civil Aviation Market
China has become the most important growth engine for the global civil aviation industry. In 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, and the core indicators of total civil aviation traffic volume have fully recovered and surpassed pre-pandemic levels. The average number of flights taken per person in China rose from 0.27 in 2019 to 0.52 in 2024, still leaving enormous room for growth compared with the United States (2.41). Continued urbanisation is driving growth in regional aviation demand. The in-service fleet of countries along the Belt and Road totals 8,436 aircraft, of which Asian countries account for 43%, which will generate substantial demand for fleet replacement and expansion.
Segment Market Forecasts for the Next 20 Years
The narrowbody market is expected to see 33,693 deliveries, with a total value of US$4.125 trillion, accounting for 74.6% of total global deliveries. Medium narrowbody aircraft (150–180 seats) account for the largest share (47.3%), and the Asia-Pacific region (including China) will account for more than 40% of global narrowbody deliveries. The widebody market is expected to see 7,719 deliveries, with a total value of US$2.167 trillion, and the global widebody fleet will grow from 4,340 aircraft in 2024 to 8,590 by 2044. The regional jet market is expected to see 3,699 deliveries, with a total value of US$189 billion; North America is the largest market (75%), and China will become the second-largest market (21.2%). The freighter market is expected to see 1,600 new freighter deliveries, with a further 2,107 passenger aircraft converted to freighters.
This presentation provided attendees with a panoramic outlook on the global and Chinese civil aviation markets, and the event came to a successful close amid lively discussion.